1 Prediction for Every USL1 team for the 2024 Season
What my brain and gut are telling me about USL1's upcoming season
We are just 2 months from the USL1 season kicking off on March 9th, with preseason starting on February 1st. So, like my colleagues across the league, I am laying out my thoughts on how my gut, with a little bit of my brain, is telling me about each USL1 team this season.
As always, these are predictions with many rosters not even being filled out or at a point where a team could field a starting XI, so I expect to be wrong on some of these points and will be revisiting this list at the midpoint and end of the season.
All of my roster information can be found here from League One Updater. (Keep up the great work, Alex you are a legend!)
Charlotte will win Silverware
The Jacks made it to the final in 2023 and were just 10 minutes away from winning it, too. With the current announced players + the whispers that I am hearing, I do not see the Independence not coming away with at least some trophy come the end of the season, whether that be the Players Shield, the USL1 Cup, the In-Season Cup, or (highly unlikely but can happen) the U.S. Open Cup.
If the Jacks do not come away with some silverware during a time when the rest of the league seems to be doing either full rebuilds or losing their top guys to the USL Championship or overseas leagues, then I feel the 2024 season could be a let down for fans in Charlotte.
The Mingos will be a top 4 team
Yes, Madison fans, you read that correctly. The swaggiest club in the league will have the same consistent performances on the pitch as the apparel department has off it. Madison brought in a lot of new faces last season and got into the playoffs for the first time since their inaugural season in 2019, and similar to Charlotte, they appear to be in a slight run-it-back mentality.
Glaeser brought back 10 players with critical returns from Schipmann and Chaney, and the entire backline was among the best in the league in 2023. Add in the addition of Boyce and Dieye; the Mingos will be among the best teams in the league and in a top 4 spot once the final whistle blows on matchday 22.
Greenville will miss the playoffs
Greenville Triumph has been one of the cornerstone organizations of USL League One since the league’s inaugural season in 2019, qualifying for the playoffs ever - but 2024 may be the year that streak ends for them. However, all good must come to an end.
The Triumph did make the playoffs last year thanks to some clutch play to finish the season and some choking by other teams, but with the departure of John Harkes, who served as the club’s head coach and sporting director since its inception, new coach Rick Wright has some tough shoes to fill in year 1.
Lexington will be the team to beat in the league
Call me a homer, but nearly all pundits around the league are saying Lexington is winning the offseason so far, adding multiple quality pieces to the returners that were critical to most of the club's success in their inaugural season.
New coach Darren Powell plays a fun and “all-gas-no-brakes” style of play. With the additions of Caputo and Onen to an already lethal attack + the solidification of the backline and wings, Stockley and Powell are building a team that will be very dangerous in 2024. Lexington can potentially fill the void left by North Carolina as the best team in the league.
Red Wolves bounce back into the top half of the league
While they may not be the Red Wolves by the end of the 2024 season, Chattanooga will certainly be back in the playoffs, thanks to the heap of veteran talent they have been snatching up from all across the league.
The 2022 USL1 Cup runners-up were playing very well at the end of 2023 but could not dig themselves out of a deep hole after starting the season poorly. If they can start 2024 off on the right foot, I project them to make the playoffs comfortably in a mid-table spot.
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Velocity win the West in the In-Season Cup
In my opinion, the In-Season Cup competition will be drawing a lot of eyes to the USL1 this year, so what better way for an expansion side to make a name for themselves than winning their group? We have very little on the Velocity besides just 2 players signed at the time of writing and Leigh Veidman coming in from USL Championship runner-up Charleston Battery to be the head coach. However, the in-season cup is just as new as them, so I can see Veidman throwing all the chips in to capture a dedicated fan base that saw 1,500 people turn out for the team’s brand reveal.
Add in that the West group could live up to the classic Will Smith song “Wild Wild West” with the retoolings going on in Omaha and Winsdor + Fuego being Fuego, and the new kids on the block could be in the final four for the inaugural in-season cup.
One Knox will be the most annoying team to play
This is not meant as a dig in any way to One Knox. It is meant as a compliment. By annoying, I mean the 1 team you know will make their opponents grind out any possible points from a match. Take it from a Lexington fan: they are one of the most efficient defensive teams, which makes the matches boring and will make many fans annoyed at their teams because they are so good on defense.
In my eyes, Knoxville was the best defensive team (tied for 1st in goals allowed with NCFC at 39) in the league last year; they just lacked the firepower to get over the hump in some matches, tying with Fuego for the fewest amount of goals scored with 36. Knox looks to be under the mentality that if they can improve that goal tally, they will make it into the playoffs this year. The recent pickup of Kingsford Adjei will help that attack a lot, and bringing back 13 guys, with the big one being Gold Glove winner Sean Lewis, will make them the scruffy team of the league, truly living up to the city’s nickname of the Scruffy City.
Éamon Zayed will be in the running for Coach of the Year
Ok, I may be playing this safe since, as many other pundits know, Zayed loves to keep the receipts of those who doubt him and the Hailstorm - ask Rich and Bryan from League ONe the Rocks. Yes, the Hailstorm have lost their 2 best players, Amann and Rogers + the team’s captain in Cornwall, but Zayed has retained a good portion of the core that allowed Rogers and Amann to have the stellar seasons they did.
Bringing back Delgado, King, Opara, and Rendon gives Zayed plenty to work with to finish in the 5th-8th place spots on the league table. I would not be surprised if Delgado or King took home some individual silverware for themselves at the end of the season.
Tormenta’s youth will shine again
Tormenta won the 2022 USL1 Cup and went into 2023 with largely the same roster but then became the first reigning USL1 Cup champion to miss the playoffs. This led to Bryce Judy and Ian Cameron hitting the reset button on the roster, initially only bringing back 5 players (6 with the return of Jake Dengler) from the 2023 squad that saw them miss out on the playoffs by 1 point. What is the average age of those 6 returners? 24.6 years
Tormenta’s youth shined for them last year, with Jackson Khoury taking home the USL1 Young Player of the Year award. Tormenta appears to be treating 2024 as a time to bring in more young players, solidify a strong core, and then make another run at the USL1 crown in 2025 or 26. However, I would not be surprised if those young players make some noise this year, sneak into the playoffs, and play spoiler to a top team, or if Cameron goes all in on the in-season cup.
Fuego will move up the table…..in attendance
Fuego is honestly the only team I do not know how they will perform in 2024. At the time of writing, Jermaine Jones has 4 players for the 2024 squad - José Carrera-García, David Diaz, Qudus Lawal, and Omar Lemus - all returners from the 2023 Wooden Spoon winning squad. So, determining how well they will under Jones in his first year as a head coach has proven difficult.
However, they can approve on the other stat: they were at the bottom of the league in - average attendance. According to Soccer Stadium Digest, Fuego averaged 701 fans per game in 2023. This figure only considers 10 reported match attendances so the number may be higher. Still, with the attraction of a USMNT legend as their head coach and the lowest season ticket prices in the league, Fuego will be able to draw closer to Tormenta and Hailstorm in the 1,200-1,500 fans per match range.
Richmond’s struggles continue in 2024
2023 was an interesting year for the Roos. They ended the year going winless in the entire 2nd half of the season (16 matches) but also shattered club attendance records, ending with an average just shy of 5k in 4,786 or 80% capacity.
However, despite finishing 11th in the table a year after winning the shield, head coach Darren Sawatzky has brought back 11 players from the 2023 squad - largely due to 9 of the 11 being on multi-year deals ending in 2024. It looks like the Kickers fans could be in for another down year, although I do not think it will be as bad as the 2nd half of 2023. They have not signed many guys, but they did snag Pablo Jara from Tormenta, who I think will be stellar for them. My gut tells me that the Kickers are in for a season similar to the Red Wolves or Lexington in 2023, with moments of greatness and some deep valleys of disappointment.
Omaha will be like 2023 Tormenta
Omaha has experienced much loss this offseason, losing their general manager (Peter Marlette) and 5 players to the USL Championship - Brewer Jr, Brito, Meza, Sanchez, and Scearce. Defending their 2023 Players Shield will be a very tall task for head coach Dominic Casciato. However, I do not see Omaha falling off a cliff to the bottom of the table.
Casciato was the USL1 Coach of the Year for a reason, and it was not just because his squad went on 14 unbeaten (with a 10-match win streak kicking it off) streak to end the year. Before the streak, Omaha had only lost 5 out of 18 matches. The Owls had their struggles, but they were consistently a top 3 team all season in 2023. Despite the loss of key players, I believe they will be content for a playoff spot this season, much like Tormenta did in 2023. Still, Omaha will benefit from the expanded playoffs when they are laying in roughly 6th - 8th place come October.
Do you think I am crazy about your team’s prediction? Have predictions of your own? Let me know in the comments or tweet me (or X me?) @J_Hunt1123. Let’s see how well these predictions hold up when the final whistle comes on matchday 22.
